Reference
Glossary
The energy-market terms behind Baseload, in plain English. If a label on any page isn't obvious, it's probably defined here.
Prices & units
- $/MWh
- Dollars per megawatt-hour, the price of one MWh of electricity. Every power price here is in $/MWh.
- On-peak
- The high-demand weekday hours (about 7am to 11pm). Our hub prices are on-peak, the window traders watch most.
- Hub
- A benchmark pricing location for a region (PJM West, Mass Hub). Like a regional index for power price.
- Henry Hub
- The U.S. benchmark natural-gas price, in dollars per MMBtu. Gas is the input fuel; power is the output.
- $/MMBtu
- Dollars per million British thermal units, the energy unit gas is priced in.
- Basis
- The price difference between two locations (e.g. a regional hub vs the benchmark). Requires a market-data vendor; not in EIA.
How outages move price
- Marginal fuel
- The last, most expensive plant needed to meet demand. It sets the price. Usually natural gas, which is why losing nuclear pushes price up through gas.
- Heat rate
- How much gas it takes to make power. Power price is roughly heat rate times gas price, so the dollar impact of a supply loss scales with gas.
- Implied heat rate
- On-peak power price divided by gas price. Shows whether power is rich or cheap relative to fuel, independent of gas swings.
- Spark spread
- Power price minus the gas cost to produce it, a rough generator margin.
- Tight / Long
- Tight means demand is close to available supply, so prices are jumpy and sensitive to any loss. Long means ample slack, so losses get absorbed.
- HDD / CDD
- Heating and cooling degree days, a measure of how cold or hot it is. They drive gas (heating) and power (cooling) demand, and therefore price.
Nuclear supply
- Baseload
- Always-on generation (nuclear, coal) versus peakers that ramp up and down. This product tracks nuclear baseload availability.
- MW offline
- Capacity not currently producing, the core supply signal. Nameplate capacity minus what is generating.
- Capacity factor / Availability
- Generation divided by full capacity, as a percent. 100% means the fleet is running flat out.
- Refuel / outage
- A planned shutdown (every 18-24 months) to replace fuel and do maintenance. The scheduled supply dips.
- Scram / forced outage
- An unplanned reactor trip. The surprise supply loss our same-day NRC wire catches first.
- Overrun
- When an outage runs longer than scheduled, keeping supply offline past its expected return.
Our methods
- Scheduled vs projected
- Scheduled = a utility-published date. Projected = our model estimate where no date is published yet. We always lead with scheduled.
- P10 / P50 / P90
- The confidence band on the forward curve. P50 is the central case; 80% of outcomes fall between P10 (low) and P90 (high).
- Price residual
- On-peak price minus its own recent (30-day) norm. Strips the gas/season level so we can isolate the effect of a supply loss.
- ISO / RTO
- The regional operators that run organized power markets (PJM, MISO, ERCOT, CAISO, ISO-NE, NYISO, SPP).
Missing a term? Tell us and we'll add it.